The National Retail Federation predicted U.S. holiday sales would grow 4.2% during November and December this year, hitting $1.01tn. Nearly half that growth will be from real consumer spending growth, with inflation accounting for the rest of the increase. In 2025, holiday sales increased 3.1% to $972bn. Among the trends expected, discounting will be at or near historic high levels, with retailers aware that consumers are pinched by rising prices.