Holiday 2025 sales rose 4.1% despite weaker consumer sentiment, producing a season that was ultimately in line with industry expectations, based on the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor for retail sales from 1st November through 31st December 2025. The Retail Monitor is a monthly measure of retail sales and is powered by Affinity Solutions, which provides insights on consumer purchasing data tracked through credit and debit cards. In December alone, retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up a seasonally adjusted 1.3% month-over-month, and ahead 3.5% year-over-year, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.1% month-over-month and 4.5% year-over-year in November.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants as well as auto dealers and gas stations) was up 1.6% month-over-month in December and up 3.6% year-over-year. That compared with a slight decrease of 0.04% month-over-month and an increase of 4.66% year-over-year in November. The NRF pointed out that a late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December in 2025, so an additional busy day of holiday spending is included in December’s data. December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales as calculated by the Retail Monitor to an increase of 4.9% and core sales to an increase of 5.1%.